leo-senate-model

Leo combines polls with other information to predict how many Senate races Democrats and Republicans will win in 2014.

Leo uses:

Historical results from the Open Elections project, CQ Press Voting and Elections Collection, Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, and the Federal Election Commission.

Fund-raising data from the Federal Election Commission. Biographical data from Project Vote Smart and candidate websites.

Polls aggregated by Pollster, the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, the U.S. Officials’ Job Approval Ratings project, Polling Report, Gallup, Talking Points Memo, The Argo Journal, Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight.

Brief instructions

• Please make sure the following R packages have been installed: gam, gtools, lubridate, maps, RJSONIO, gdata, plotrix, zoo

• Change directory to the top-level working directory of this Git repository.

• Run: Rscript master-public.R

• Prediction output can then be found in the data-publisher/public/_big_assets/ subdirectory.

Sample output data in /data-publisher/public/_big_assets

histogram.tsv

matchups.tsv

nyt-ratings-today.json

{
  "date": "2014-04-22T13:19:49-0400",
  "data": [
    {
      "dem-pct": 49.428,
      "state": "AK",
      "office": "ak-senate-class-ii-2014",
      "fips": "2",
      "nyt-rating": 4
    },
    {
      "dem-pct": 4.1438E-10,
      "state": "AL",
      "office": "al-senate-class-ii-2014",
      "fips": "1",
      "nyt-rating": 7
    },
    {
      "dem-pct": 45.693,
      "state": "AR",
      "office": "ar-senate-class-ii-2014",
      "fips": "5",
      "nyt-rating": 4
    }
  ]
}

parameters.json

{
  "continuingSeats": {
    "dem": 34,
    "rep": 30
  },
  "nationalErrorScale": 0.40797,
  "upsetProb": 40,
  "houseEffect": 3.5,
  "mt": 85,
  "mtNum": "17",
  "mtDenom": "20",
  "aan": "an"
}

senate-likelihood-all.tsv

senate-likelihood.tsv

slug-lookup.tsv